A GENERIC SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODEL FOR REGIONAL SECURITY CONTROL 

Masloboev Andrey Vladimirovich, doctor of technical sciences, associate professor, leading researcher, Institute of Informatics and mathematical modelling of technological processes of the Kola Science Centre RAS (184209, 24А Fersmana street, Apatite, Murmansk region, Russia), Email: masloboev@iimm.ru
Putilov Vladimir Aleksandrovich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, scientific supervisor, honoured science worker of RF, Institute of Informatics and mathematical modelling of technological processes of the Kola Science Centre RAS (184209, 24А Fersmana street, Apatite, Murmansk region, Russia), E-mail: putilov@iimm.ru 

004.94, 338.24 

10.21685/2307-4205-2019-4-3 

For regional security index dynamics forecasting under specified characteristics and constraints an integrated system-dynamic model for regional security management support has been developed. The model is designed on the basis of regional security unified conceptual model and by application of system-dynamic model synthesis method of complex systems. The model correspond an assembly of functional model units which provide state-of-the-art and tendencies of regional components (population, industry, labour-market, technology and education, environment, etc.) development assessment. For each component within the model the main risks are formalized. The distinctive feature of the model is composite structure, which dynamically forms from among the problem-oriented model patterns, that provides model validity enhancement and model setting time reduction for it configuration under concrete problemsolving. The model use an original security metrics system, which is implemented as a result of generalization of existing indicator systems and formation of integral indexes, derived by the standard safety indicator groups convolution. The model involves individual regional development indicators, which reflect specificity of the Arctic region. 

system-dynamic model, information support, control, simulation, regional security